THE APPROACHING PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.

Forecasting Parliamentary Outcomes in Multiparty Elections : Hungary

Forecasting seat outcomes in legislative elections in countries with stable, two-party systems is su ciently challenging as to have proven elusive for much of democratic experience. Forecasting an election in a relatively new democracy with a uid multi-party system, therefore, would seem on its face to be a hopeless objective. In this paper I attempt to demonstrate that election forecasting in ...

Ukraine's 2006 parliamentary elections: first conclusions

Elections and Durable Governments in Parliamentary Democracies

This paper provides a theory of a parliamentary government system with proportional representation elections and policy-motivated parties and voters. In a symmetric, spatial model governments are majoritarian, they and their policies are durable, and voters elect minority parliaments in every period. A continuum of (Markov) political equilibria exist with policies that represent concessions to ...

Coalition Termination and the Strategic Timing of Parliamentary Elections

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive o...

Computing the Margin of Victory in Preferential Parliamentary Elections

We show how to use automated computation of election margins to assess the number of votes that would need to change in order to alter a parliamentary outcome for single-member preferential electorates. In the context of increasing automation of Australian electoral processes, and accusations of deliberate interference in elections in Europe and the USA, this work forms the basis of a rigorous ...